Date of Award

5-1-2022

Language

English

Document Type

Master's Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science (MS)

College/School/Department

College of Emergency Preparedness, Homeland Security and Cybersecurity

Content Description

1 online resource (iii, 40 pages) : illustrations (some color), maps (chiefly color)

Dissertation/Thesis Chair

Michael Young

Committee Members

Gary Ackerman, Brian Nussbaum

Keywords

Military exercises, Passportization, Proxy forces, Tension, Security, International, South Ossetia War, 2008, Ukraine Conflict, 2014-

Subject Categories

Library and Information Science

Abstract

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 was the only Russian military offensive that had adequate warning that the Russians would invade. The four previous instances of Russian military operations including intervention in Moldova (1992), invasion of Georgia (2008), annexation of Crimea (2014), and support for separatists in Eastern Ukraine (2014) all occurred without warning that Russia was going to invade and consequently, those target countries had no time to prepare. If NATO, allied combatant commanders, as well as their respective intelligence organizations want to be able to prepare and effectively respond in the future to Russian military operations, an understanding of potential indicators of pending Russian military actions including an estimate of when they can be expected to begin is required. Through an exploratory analysis approach, this thesis examined the four cases cited above along with the events that occurred prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to examine and validate the following indicators of Russian military offensives: Tension, Military exercises, Passportization and the use/support of proxy forces. This thesis provides evidence that these indicators can be used to predict future Russian Military operations.

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