Date of Award

1-1-2020

Language

English

Document Type

Dissertation

Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

College/School/Department

Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences

Content Description

1 online resource (xxvi, 221 pages) : color illustrations, color maps.

Dissertation/Thesis Chair

Ryan D Torn

Committee Members

Lance Bosart, Daniel Keyser, Robert Fovell, Chris Davis

Keywords

Diabatic, Forecasts, Potential Vorticity, Rossby, Warm Conveyor Belt, Waveguide, Cyclones, Cyclone forecasting, Rossby waves, Atmospheric temperature, Atmospheric waves

Subject Categories

Atmospheric Sciences

Abstract

Perturbations to the potential vorticity (PV) waveguide can lead to the downstream radiation of Rossby waves, and in turn high-impact weather events. The PV waveguide is often perturbed in association with cyclogenesis, largely due to the latent heat release within the cyclone’s warm conveyor belt (WCB). Previous studies have hypothesized that forecast uncertainty associated with diabatic heating in WCBs can result in large downstream forecast variability; however these studies have not established a direct connection between the two. This hypothesis is evaluated for six cyclogenesis events characterized by highly amplified flow over the North Atlantic using ensemble model simulations.

Download

Share

COinS