Date of Award

1-1-2019

Language

English

Document Type

Master's Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science (MS)

College/School/Department

Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences

Content Description

1 online resource (vii, 77 pages) : color illustrations, color maps.

Dissertation/Thesis Chair

Andrea L Lang

Committee Members

Ryan D Torn, Kristen L Corbosiero

Keywords

Winter storms, Cyclones, Cyclone forecasting

Subject Categories

Atmospheric Sciences

Abstract

A conventional forecasting notion is that as lead time decreases, numerical weather prediction models exhibit a leftward (i.e., west) trend in the forecast position of low-pressure systems along the East Coast of the U.S. This left trend, which may turn seemingly weak ocean cyclones into high-impact weather events for the Northeast U.S., is attributed to various potential causes, such as variability in upstream shortwave troughs, or the representation of latent heat release in the NWP models downstream of the trough associated with the incipient cyclone. This study seeks to address whether this rule of thumb holds any significant merit, and to examine a long-term climatology of Northeast U.S. cold season cyclones from a forecast skill and error perspective.

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