Date of Award

1-1-2018

Language

English

Document Type

Dissertation

Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

College/School/Department

Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences

Content Description

1 online resource (ii, xxii, 228 pages) : illustrations (some color)

Dissertation/Thesis Chair

Brian H Tang

Committee Members

Kristen Corbosiero, Ryan Torn, John Molinari

Keywords

convection, hurricane, modeling, rapid intensification, tropical cyclone, trough, Cyclones, Convection (Meteorology), Cyclone forecasting, Troposphere

Subject Categories

Atmospheric Sciences | Meteorology

Abstract

Intensity forecasts for tropical cyclones that undergo a period of rapid intensification are particularly susceptible to large errors. For those storms that interact with an upper-tropospheric trough, tropical cyclone intensity forecasts are complicated, as upper-tropospheric troughs can provide unique intensification mechanisms, but are often associated with unfavorable environmental conditions. Although tropical cyclones in environments with nearby upper-tropospheric troughs are associated with lesser intensification rates than tropical cyclones in environments devoid of upper-tropospheric troughs, some tropical cyclone--trough interactions are associated with a period of rapid intensification. This dissertation utilizes reanalysis output, satellite observations, and ensemble modeling simulations to understand whether rapid intensification episodes in the presence of upper-tropospheric troughs are associated with unique environmental, vortex, and convective characteristics. Furthermore, this dissertation seeks to identify whether newly formed tropical cyclones that interact with upper-tropospheric troughs are associated with different intensification mechanisms than more intense storms.

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