Date of Award

1-1-2017

Language

English

Document Type

Dissertation

Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

College/School/Department

Department of Economics

Content Description

1 online resource (1 volume) : illustrations (some color), color maps.

Dissertation/Thesis Chair

Hany A. Shawky

Committee Members

Rui Zhao, Zhongwen Liang

Keywords

Electricity Market, Energy Economy, Electric utilities, Electric power systems, Electric power transmission

Subject Categories

Economics

Abstract

In the first chapter, I analyze the price variations among zones in the electricity forward market of New York State, and how electricity forward prices react to the economic risks in the market. It applies a VAR model with monthly/holiday dummies and weather data to forecast the three components of electricity prices--energy price, marginal cost of congestion and losses. The GARCH estimates of the conditional variance of the VAR residuals are treated as risks. We find that participants will bid higher price in the forward market when they expect higher risks. Particularly, the risk of congestion has a larger effect on the forward price in Northwestern zones compared to the Southeastern zones of NYS.

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