Date of Award

1-1-2014

Language

English

Document Type

Master's Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science (MS)

College/School/Department

Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences

Content Description

1 online resource (xii, 114 pages) : color illustrations, color maps.

Dissertation/Thesis Chair

Paul E Roundy

Committee Members

Lance F Bosart

Keywords

ER Waves, Extratropical, MJO, Predictability, Tropical, Madden-Julian oscillation, Rossby waves, Atmospheric circulation, Convection (Meteorology)

Subject Categories

Atmospheric Sciences

Abstract

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), the leading mode of tropical convective and circulation variability on intraseasonal time scales, has become increasingly leveraged to improve empirical prediction of the global atmospheric circulation. Significant progress has been made in recent years to advance subseasonal (10-30-day) prediction of atmospheric circulation anomalies, and much of this progress can be attributed to the inclusion of information about the phase and amplitude of the MJO in various forecast processes. Despite this progress, however, forecasts based only on the state of the MJO omit information about other important tropical convective and circulation anomalies, and coherent MJO signals are absent some of the time. Thus, including information about the state of other tropical convective and circulation anomalies in an MJO-based subseasonal forecast process might further enhance predictability of the global atmospheric circulation.

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