Date of Award
5-2023
Document Type
Honors Thesis
Degree Name
Bachelor of Science
Department
Finance
Advisor/Committee Chair
David Smith
Abstract
This paper aims to determine if U.S. and international stock returns are dependent on the U.S. four-year Presidential election cycle (PEC). Additionally, it expands on past literature by confirming past results and extending them to the present. It implements an economic integration variable, which is a measure of how correlated a country is economically to the U.S. The markets that are highly integrated with the U.S. follow a very similar pattern to that of the U.S. PEC, while weakly integrated countries are less likely to follow the U.S. return cycle. A Chow test confirms that economic integration status influences a country’s PEC sensitivity.
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Recommended Citation
Peragine, Paul, "Do U.S. and International Stock Returns Depend on the Presidential Election Cycle Year?" (2023). Financial Analyst. 20.
https://scholarsarchive.library.albany.edu/honorscollege_finance/20