Date of Award
Spring 2025
Language
English
Embargo Period
4-30-2025
Document Type
Master's Thesis
Degree Name
Master of Science (MS)
College/School/Department
Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences
Program
Atmospheric Science
First Advisor
Robert Fovell
Committee Members
Brian Tang
Keywords
Model Verification, High-Resolution Rapid Refresh, Wind Gusts, Boundary Layer
Subject Categories
Atmospheric Sciences | Meteorology
Abstract
ABSTRACT:
Accurate wind and gust forecasts are crucial in operational meteorology, yet there is a distinct gap in the literature regarding the verification of operational gust forecasts. In the present work, we assess the performance of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh's (HRRR) gust potential, verifying it against the Automated Surface Observing System's (ASOS) observed gusts across the Continental United States (CONUS). The HRRR gust's diurnal cycle reveals a significant underprediction of the gust during daylight hours and a slight overprediction of the gust during hours of darkness. The daytime underprediction undermines the assumption that forecasts represent a potential that tends to overpredict the gust.
These underpredictions result from the gust algorithm's failure to appropriately respond to surface roughness and dominant land-use type. Each vegetation type, including its associated surface roughness, is found to have a distinct relationship with the observed gust that is not reflected in the forecasts. We also question the gust algorithm's reliance on planetary boundary layer (PBL) diagnostics. It is found that no relationship exists between the predicted PBL height and that of the forecast gust while one does exist with the observed gust. We also consider possible replacements or additions to the PBL diagnostics, such as sensible heat flux and surface lapse rate. Both predicted sensible heat fluxes and unstable lapse rates have a moderate negative correlation with gust forecast bias, suggesting they have information that can be used to improve the algorithm. The result of this work is an understanding of the limitations of the current algorithm so that a new and better one can be implemented.
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Recommended Citation
Glasser, Alex M., "Limitations of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Gust Algorithm" (2025). Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present). 158.
https://scholarsarchive.library.albany.edu/etd/158
