Cumulative incidence and diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection in New York

Authors

Eli S. Rosenberg, University at Albany, State University of New York
James M. Tesoriero, University at Albany, State University of New York
Elizabeth M. Rosenthal, University at Albany, State University of New York
Rakkoo Chung, University at Albany, State University of New York
Meredith A. Barranco, University at Albany, State University of New York
Linda M. Styer, University at Albany, State University of New York
Monica M. Parker, University at Albany, State University of New York
Shu-Yin John Leung, University at Albany, State University of New York
Johanne E. Morne, University at Albany, State University of New York
Danielle Greene, University at Albany, State University of New York
David R. Holtgrave, University at Albany, State University of New York
Dina Hoefer, University at Albany, State University of New York
Jessica Kumar, University at Albany, State University of New York
Tomoko Udo, University at Albany, State University of New York
Brad Hutton, University at Albany, State University of New York
Howard A. Zucker, University at Albany, State University of New York

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

8-2020

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annepidem.2020.06.004

Abstract

Purpose

New York State (NYS) is an epicenter of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the United States. Reliable estimates of cumulative incidence in the population are critical to tracking the extent of transmission and informing policies.

Methods

We conducted a statewide seroprevalence study in a 15,101 patron convenience sample at 99 grocery stores in 26 counties throughout NYS. SARS-CoV-2 cumulative incidence was estimated from antibody reactivity by first poststratification weighting and then adjusting by antibody test characteristics. The percent diagnosed was estimated by dividing the number of diagnoses by the number of estimated infection-experienced adults.

Results

Based on 1887 of 15,101 (12.5%) reactive results, estimated cumulative incidence through March 29 was 14.0% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 13.3%–14.7%), corresponding to 2,139,300 (95% CI: 2,035,800–2,242,800) infection-experienced adults. Cumulative incidence was highest in New York City 22.7% (95% CI: 21.5%–24.0%) and higher among Hispanic/Latino (29.2%), non-Hispanic black/African American (20.2%), and non-Hispanic Asian (12.4%) than non-Hispanic white adults (8.1%, P < .0001). An estimated 8.9% (95% CI: 8.4%–9.3%) of infections in NYS were diagnosed, with diagnosis highest among adults aged 55 years or older (11.3%, 95% CI: 10.4%–12.2%).

Conclusions

From the largest U.S. serosurvey to date, we estimated >2 million adult New York residents were infected through late March, with substantial disparities, although cumulative incidence remained less than herd immunity thresholds. Monitoring, testing, and contact tracing remain essential public health strategies.

Recommended Citation

Rosenberg, Eli S.; Tesoriero, James M.; Rosenthal, Elizabeth M.; Chung, Rakkoo; Barranco, Meredith A.; Styer, Linda M.; Parker, Monica M.; Leung, Shu-Yin John; Morne, Johanne E.; Greene, Danielle; Holtgrave, David R.; Hoefer, Dina; Kumar, Jessica; Udo, Tomoko; Hutton, Brad; and Zucker, Howard A., "Cumulative incidence and diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection in New York" (2020). Publications, Issue Briefs, Reports, Etc. 3.
https://scholarsarchive.library.albany.edu/covid-mhd-nys-pubs-and-reports/3

License

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