Presentation Title

An Analysis of the Effects of Terrain on the Occurrence of Severe Weather in Upstate New York Utilizing Computer Model Simulations

Panel Name

The Climate, the Atmosphere and the Beyond

Location

Lecture Center 3C

Start Date

3-5-2019 4:15 PM

End Date

3-5-2019 5:00 PM

Presentation Type

Oral Presentation

Academic Major

Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences

Abstract

Predicting the development and occurrence of severe thunderstorms in upstate New York is a challenge due to the complex terrain that is present in the region. Previous research on severe weather cases in the region has suggested that the Mohawk and Hudson Valleys can influence the occurrence of severe weather. Specifically, flow channeling can increase low-level wind shear and enhance instability in valley locations, and therefore it can produce a localized environment that is favorable for severe weather. This previous research was limited by the relatively sparse observational network present in upstate New York prior to the installation of the New York State Mesonet. This study complements this previous research by analyzing the impact of flow channeling on severe weather utilizing high-resolution computer model simulations.

Three severe weather cases have been analyzed to examine the impact of flow channeling on severe weather. This presentation will focus on one high-impact case that occurred on 31 May 1998. On this day, a damaging F3 tornado occurred in the Hudson Valley, impacting Mechanicville, New York. A high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulation of this event suggests that flow channeling in this case resulted in the development of a distinct moisture gradient and wind shift at the intersection of the Mohawk and Hudson valleys. The environment to the east of the boundary was characterized by extreme low-level wind shear and enhanced instability, favoring the intensification of a simulated supercell thunderstorm and enhancing the likelihood of tornadogenesis as the supercell approached Mechanicville.

Select Where This Work Originated From

Independent Study

Award

Presidential Award

First Faculty Advisor

Brian Tang

First Advisor Email

btang@albany.edu

First Advisor Department

Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences

Second Faculty Advisor

Ross Lazear

Second Faculty Advisor Email

rlazear@albany.edu

Second Advisor Department

Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences

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Finished or mostly finished by conference date

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May 3rd, 4:15 PM May 3rd, 5:00 PM

An Analysis of the Effects of Terrain on the Occurrence of Severe Weather in Upstate New York Utilizing Computer Model Simulations

Lecture Center 3C

Predicting the development and occurrence of severe thunderstorms in upstate New York is a challenge due to the complex terrain that is present in the region. Previous research on severe weather cases in the region has suggested that the Mohawk and Hudson Valleys can influence the occurrence of severe weather. Specifically, flow channeling can increase low-level wind shear and enhance instability in valley locations, and therefore it can produce a localized environment that is favorable for severe weather. This previous research was limited by the relatively sparse observational network present in upstate New York prior to the installation of the New York State Mesonet. This study complements this previous research by analyzing the impact of flow channeling on severe weather utilizing high-resolution computer model simulations.

Three severe weather cases have been analyzed to examine the impact of flow channeling on severe weather. This presentation will focus on one high-impact case that occurred on 31 May 1998. On this day, a damaging F3 tornado occurred in the Hudson Valley, impacting Mechanicville, New York. A high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulation of this event suggests that flow channeling in this case resulted in the development of a distinct moisture gradient and wind shift at the intersection of the Mohawk and Hudson valleys. The environment to the east of the boundary was characterized by extreme low-level wind shear and enhanced instability, favoring the intensification of a simulated supercell thunderstorm and enhancing the likelihood of tornadogenesis as the supercell approached Mechanicville.