"Scenario Planning In A Post-Pandemic World: Karner Blue Butterfly And " by Senia Quevedo

Date of Award

8-1-2023

Language

English

Document Type

Master's Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science (MS)

College/School/Department

Department of Geography and Planning

Dissertation/Thesis Chair

Andrei Lapenas

Committee Members

George Robinson

Subject Categories

Climate

Abstract

This study outlines four future scenarios for the Karner blue butterfly and the Albany PineBush in a post-pandemic world. Management changes and modifications are becoming more necessary due to the changing climate conditions and habitat loss. The COVID-19 pandemic has changed certain conditions that affect the Karner blue butterfly and its habitats, such as noise and air pollution, increased outdoor recreation, and pausing development along the pine bush borders. A scenario planning model was used to better understand how policy and lockdown restrictions being lifted will affect the Karner blue butterfly population after the Albany Pine Bush surveyed a record-high population number of 46,100 individual butterflies in 2020. The analysis of the four scenarios showed that, regardless of policy stance, limiting noise and air pollution through vehicular traffic-reducing measures is essential to maintain the record-high Karner blue butterfly population. Other important variables include managing the amount of private development around the pine bush and continuing to maintain and expand environmental buffers. These findings indicate the need for local policy to strictly maintain the prioritization of the endangered butterfly and the sensitive environment of the Albany Pine Bush to the benefit of the surrounding communities.

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