Date of Award
Spring 5-2026
Language
English
Document Type
Honors Thesis
Degree Name
Bachelor of Arts
Department
Finance
Advisor/Committee Chair
Rita Biswas
Committee Member
David Smith
Abstract
This paper provides empirical evidence on aggregate corporate earnings growth as a predictor of gross domestic product (GDP) growth at the sectoral level in the US. We explore how sectoral earnings predict sectoral GDP with and without controls to examine more accurate methods of GDP forecasting. Utilizing panel data for fifteen sectors from 2005 to 2024, we examine this predictive relation on a quarterly basis. Our results show that sectoral earnings can predict sector GDP in seven of the fifteen sectors either contemporaneously or with a lag. These results can aid policymakers as well as investors in making more accurate, sector specific decisions. This study contributes to the literature by exploring how different sector earnings behave in relation to GDP and which sector can best predict GDP growth, documenting previously unexplored sectoral differences
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Recommended Citation
Reich, Aleeza, "Sectoral Differences in the Role of Aggregate Corporate Earnings in Predicting GDP" (2026). Business/Business Administration. 72.
https://scholarsarchive.library.albany.edu/honorscollege_business/72