Date of Award

Summer 2026

Language

English

Embargo Period

7-30-2026

Document Type

Master's Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science (MS)

College/School/Department

Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences

Program

Atmospheric Science

First Advisor

Kristen Corbosiero

Second Advisor

Brian Tang

Committee Members

Kristen Corbosiero, Brian Tang

Keywords

hurricane, vortex, vortex alignment, TC, tropical cyclone, vorticity

Subject Categories

Atmospheric Sciences | Meteorology

Abstract

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are challenging to forecast when under vertical wind shear (VWS). VWS tilts a TC’s vortex, creating asymmetries in its structure that impedes intensification. Although work has been done to conceptualize and understand how TCs evolve under shear and how they axisymmetrize and intensify, vortex alignment remains a complex and unresolved topic. The goal of this study is to assess what physical processes are important to tilt reduction and how these processes evolve in weak TCs. Using the Hurricane Analysis Forecast System Model-B (HAFS-B) 2.1, a case study on two storms, Hurricane Earl (2022) and Hurricane Lee (2023) were used to investigate how the TC undergoes vortex alignment in moderate wind shear.

Several processes were key in aiding vertical alignment of Lee’s vortex, in which Earl did not have. Deep and persistent convection surrounded Lee’s upper-level vortex, which promoted the concentration of vertical vorticity to organize Lee’s vortex, whereas Earl contained weaker convection that failed to enable vortex alignment. The differences in convective activity were attributed to strong surface fluxes wrapping around the upshear quadrants of Lee, while ample humidification, aloft, propagated upshear to sustain buoyancy and drive deep convection in close proximity to Lee’s upper-level vortex. The surface fluxes in Earl were much weaker, which generated less buoyancy to promote deep convection, despite high moisture aloft. The nuance of Lee’s alignment involved the role of downdrafts providing convergence aloft to organize the vortex structure while inhibiting convection as subsidence intrudes into the inner core. While counterintuitive, this works in unison to align Lee’s vortex as it evolves over a 12-h period.

License

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Share

COinS