Date of Award
Bachelor of Science
This paper aims to determine if U.S. and international stock returns are dependent on the U.S. four-year Presidential election cycle (PEC). Additionally, it expands on past literature by confirming past results and extending them to the present. It implements an economic integration variable, which is a measure of how correlated a country is economically to the U.S. The markets that are highly integrated with the U.S. follow a very similar pattern to that of the U.S. PEC, while weakly integrated countries are less likely to follow the U.S. return cycle. A Chow test confirms that economic integration status influences a country’s PEC sensitivity.
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Peragine, Paul, "Do U.S. and International Stock Returns Depend on the Presidential Election Cycle Year?" (2023). Financial Analyst. 20.