Date of Award


Document Type

Honors Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Science



Advisor/Committee Chair

David Smith


This paper aims to determine if U.S. and international stock returns are dependent on the U.S. four-year Presidential election cycle (PEC). Additionally, it expands on past literature by confirming past results and extending them to the present. It implements an economic integration variable, which is a measure of how correlated a country is economically to the U.S. The markets that are highly integrated with the U.S. follow a very similar pattern to that of the U.S. PEC, while weakly integrated countries are less likely to follow the U.S. return cycle. A Chow test confirms that economic integration status influences a country’s PEC sensitivity.

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.